Welcome to the second episode of our 2021 season! Episode 29 of Grains Matter Chatter is now live.
Tuesday, January 19, 7:10 a.m. – Yesterday the markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day in the US. Closing prices are from Friday which was a slightly positive day for our markets. Harvest 2021 corn closed up 2 1/4, harvest 2021 soybeans closed up 1 1/4, harvest 2021 spring wheat closed up 4 and harvest 2021 winter wheat closed up 2 3/4. In the overnight trade corn and the wheat sector are positive with soybeans on the negative side. Oil closed down $1.20 on Friday at $52.36 per barrel. It is stronger in trading this morning with it currently valued at $52.64 per barrel. Our dollar had a low yesterday morning of $0.782 US and has traded mostly up since that time. This morning it is currently valued at $0.786 US. Wheat prices are leading our markets on the positive side this morning. The announcement by Russia on Friday that they are looking at increasing their export tax on wheat in March could be giving this market some strength. Russia has over the last few years been the low cost provider of wheat to the world and these export taxes will push their prices higher to importers. The corn market is getting some real mixed signals in the short term. Projections for the crop in Brazil are widely varied. The USDA last week projected their crop at 109 million tonnes. Their state forecaster, CONAB, has it projected at only 102.3 million tonnes. Yesterday a private firm in Brazil projected it at 113.5 million tonnes. The previous record high for corn production in Brazil was about 106 million tonnes. This new higher projection comes after some recent rains and a favourable growing forecast going forward. Which number to believe and to trade with the marketplace has yet to decide? Another mixed signal for the corn market is that Managed Money increased their long position once again to a new all-time high last week. This position is about 17% larger than the previous high made back in 2010. In contrast to this the commercial side of the marketplace continues to sell heavily into the recent upswing in prices and have increased their short position also to a new all-time high. This position is about 18% larger than the previous record from June of 2019. The showdown between these two record large positions will most likely play out this crop year and will continue to bring volatility to this market. Please call Geoffrey Guy at 613-880-2707 or Bob Orr at 613-720-1271 or Delores Foster at 613-880-7458 if you would like prices for crop you have stored on your farm. Prices quoted herein are for product at our elevator.
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