North Gower Grains

Monday was another positive day for our markets.  Spot corn closed up 4, spot soybeans closed up 5, harvest winter wheat closed up 15 and harvest spring wheat closed up 8 1/2.  In the overnight trade all or our markets remain on the positive side.  Oil closed up $2.65 yesterday at $98.07 per barrel.  It is stronger again this morning with it now trading at $101.92 per barrel.  Our dollar had a high yesterday morning of $0.733 US and has trended lower since then.  This morning it is currently valued at $0.729 US.

It looks like the war between the US and Iran is not ending anytime soon.  President Trump has stated that Iran’s response to a peace proposal was flatly rejected and crude oil prices have jumped back up above the $100 per barrel market.  With the war continuing it looks like our markets are gaining back the ‘war premium’ that they pulled back on last week.  The influence by this war will end someday but when that occurs is yet to be seen.

Today the USDA releases their monthly WASDE report.  The market will be watching closely to see how they deal with both corn and soybean acres for this year.  If the swing into soybean acres is larger then what was projected back with the Projected Acres Report at the end of March we could see a large price swing today.  Remember the other major event later this week is the scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Xi.  If they make any agreement to increase agricultural sales from the US to China this could also have a major effect on our prices.

The USDA released their Weekly Crop Progress Report yesterday.  Corn plantings progressed from 38% complete last week up to 57% this week.  Last year at this time they were at 59% complete with the 5 year average is 52%.  They also reported that 23% of the crop is emerged.  This compares to 26% at this time last year with the 5 year average being only 19%.

Soybean plantings increased from 33% last week up to 49% this week.  Last year at this time they were at 45% planted with the 5 year average coming in at only 36%.  Emergence was reported at 20%.  This is higher than both last year’s 16% and the 5 year average of only 12%.

Spring wheat plantings increased from 32% completed last week up to 53% completed this week.  This compares to last year’s 63% planted at this time and the 5 year average of 51% planted.  Emergence was reported at 23% of the crop.  This compares to last year’s 25% emerged and the 5 year average of 19% emerged.

The good to excellent rating for their winter wheat crop decreased 3% week over week to come in at 28%.  Last year at this time this crop had a 54% good to excellent rating.

This report should be considered bearish for the corn and soybean market with their continued fast planting rates.  For spring wheat the report is mostly neutral and is most definitely bullish for the winter wheat market with the lower good to excellent rating.